BACKGROUND TO THE CONFLICT
The SDLP have been engaged in a battle for the past 34 years for the hearts and minds of the Nationalist community.
For much of that time, the choice in the Nationalist community has been between violent and non-violent methods of achieving change. In more recent years there has been less violence, but there has also been the introduction of a new methodology for achieving change in the constitutional field.
That new methodology involves the use of the demographic card to predict population changes that may allow a Nationalist majority to develop within twenty years. This has been termed “the demographic strategy” and is extensively promoted by Sinn Fein. Each election, a new member of the Sinn Fein leadership declares that a united Ireland will be achieved by in or around 2016 A.D..
An analysis of this strategy reveals that it is on the surface simply a sectarian headcount strategy, and that it is no different to the approach taken by unionists to form the state of Northern Ireland, and to maintain it over the years since that foundation in 1920.
A deeper analysis reveals that this strategy is fraught with danger and increases the risk substantially of sectarian conflict in the years ahead, and may result in the final analysis in a civil war situation developing in and around the time of a majority voting for a united Ireland.
The strategy determines that Northern Ireland will become a demographic boxing ring for the foreseeable future, with the likelihood that any government minister with responsibility for creating jobs holding a key position in determining the growth of the populations of the respective communities. All government expenditure may influence the demographic fortunes of each community and the Northern Ireland state’s prospects for stability are consequently low.
Thus the demographic strategy of Sinn Fein determines that there will be poor community relations and indeed hostilities will be actively encouraged in the years ahead.
In early 2004 A.D., we are faced with the reality that Sinn Fein are, together with the Democratic Unionist Party, the largest parties in each of Northern Ireland’s two communities. These are the two parties who have been most sectarian and most extreme over the period of the Troubles, and who will find most benefit from the demographic boxing ring. My prediction is that the fortunes of theses parties will rise and rise until a definitive poll results in a united Ireland, whereupon one of several things may happen: there is a risk of widespread civil war or a new agreement may be reached possibly resulting in independence for Northern Ireland or both of the previously stated options together. A further more probable option may be repartition, a new border to accommodate a problem that could be resolved with the same new border now.
Therefore, the challenge for the SDLP will be to end that process and set in motion a new process for Irish unity.
We must have loyalty to our own ideals in this new process, not to the ideals of other parties. We can have no loyalty to David Trimble who systematically reduced support for the SDLP and promoted Sinn Fein with his calls for decommissioning, giving Sinn Fein opportunities for “decommissioning spectaculars”, during the course of the past five years. We can have little sympathy for the Irish government who excluded the SDLP from recent negotiations. Naturally, we can have no regrets about ending the remits of Sinn Fein, the DUP, or the British government in pursuing our own policies.
We must bring this demographic conflict to an end and reunite Ireland.
