SECTION 12

PROBABLE OUTCOME

Will it be a “velvet revolution”? Or will the plan lead to violence? My opinion is that, with Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams under pressure to act responsibly, and sending out signals of good intent, this is the best time in a generation to attempt to bring about radical change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland.

I believe that it will be a “velvet revolution”, and that the Northern Ireland state will pass away without violence. The reality of our past is that certain political parties were seemingly able to control the men of violence such that they were at times more, and at other times less, active.

It may also be concluded that they exerted influence on those militarists beyond the extent of emotional attachment to the respective struggles by the communities involved. In other words, the violence went on for too long, and so long that it resulted in weariness in the general population for those who would advocate war.

Thus there is no appetite for violence in the North of today. However, there is a risk that such an appetite would return over time and be sufficiently strong in 2016 A.D. to allow serious violence to develop.

My prediction is that it will be a close-fought referendum with all to play for. I believe that a united Ireland may be voted for by a majority of the North’s electorate in accordance with the provisions of the Good Friday Agreement.

In the event of the referendum failing to deliver a verdict in favour of a united Ireland, I believe that those councils who have held referenda on repartition should press ahead for the delivery of that outcome. I see no reason why the border would not be re-drawn and why sizeable sections of the North would not begin to be governed by the Dublin government.

I anticipate the negotiation of a sizeable subvention to cover the short-term, and medium term, needs of the reorganised Irish economy. However, the British government has undertaken to “help, enable and encourage” (Peter Brooke, 1990) any agreement reached by the Irish people, and funding may be sought from them first and foremost.

I believe in my heart that this is the process that will lead to the ending of the state of Northern Ireland, which has been founded on a sectarian headcount and which is maintained on a sectarian headcount. It will be ended by cross-community support in accordance with the manifesto commitment of the SDLP (November 2003).
 

 

                       \