SECTION 1

 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 

In early 2004 A.D., we are faced with the reality that Sinn Fein and the Democratic Unionist Party are the largest parties in each of Northern Ireland’s two communities. These are the two parties who have been most sectarian and most extreme over the period of the Troubles, and who will find most benefit from the demographic boxing ring that is Northern Ireland now. My prediction is that the fortunes of theses parties will rise and rise until a definitive poll results in a united Ireland.

 

Repartition is a highly likely outcome of a Nationalist majority in a referendum conducted after years of a Sinn Fein demographic strategy. That may happen together with or after a civil war.

 

Thus, the Northern Ireland state has no meaning any longer other than to contain a battle between the two communities that will inevitably result in some form of civil war.

 

In my opinion, with Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams under pressure to act responsibly, and sending out signals of good intent, this is the best time in a generation to attempt to bring about radical change in the constitutional status of Northern Ireland.

 

The goal of the Nationalist community in Northern Ireland is a united Ireland, and in this document I map out a path to that unity through the use of repartition.

 

Repartition is defined as the redrawing of the border to accommodate the wishes of a majority in the border areas for unity with the rest of Ireland.

 

How will this bring about a united Ireland? I believe that once the majorities along the border indicate their willingness to leave the United Kingdom, then the whole house of cards may collapse and the unionist community may seek a new accommodation with the rest of Nationalist Ireland.

 

This will happen through a variety of measures, the first of which will be the support of Derry City Council for a referendum in their area in favour of a new alliance with the Republic. It is anticipated that the Saville Inquiry into Bloody Sunday, which is to report soon, will be interpreted to indicate that Derry people no longer see a role for themselves in the UK.

 

Once Derry City Council decides to pursue a path to unity with the rest of Ireland, then other councils with a Nationalist majority are anticipated to follow, until the entire border region is enveloped in a desire to leave the UK.

 

At this point pressure will be brought to bear on the British Government to hold a referendum on the constitutional status of Northern Ireland in order to decide whether it should remain within the UK.

 

With the sword of Damocles of repartition held over the head of unionists, with the certainty that they will lose a significant part of their state even if they win the referendum, the unionist community will be more amenable and open to the arguments for the reunification of Ireland.

 

This gives Nationalists the best opportunity of actually winning that referendum, and bringing about a new, united Ireland. The referendum is anticipated to be fought in accordance with SDLP policy, which proposes such a referendum. 

 

At worst, this plan frees large swathes of Northern Ireland, bringing many Nationalists into the Republic. At best, it creates a united Ireland.